Slight Growth in Global Tech Market in '13, Bigger Rebound in '14
In its latest global tech market forecast, Forrester is forecasting 5.4% growth (local currencies) in global tech spending in 2013 — but, notes analyst Andrew Bartels, the year will be better than it looks from the headline. Aside from Europe, which will grow minimally in 2013 as it continues to rebound from its recession, other geographies will grow: the United States by 7.5% and Asia Pacific by 4%. In Latin America and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, tech buying will increase by 9% over the next two years.
Forrester contends that a lot of the economic instability affecting markets today — such as the fiscal cliff, the European recession, and the leadership transition in China — will be in the past and that firms should look at 2013 as transition year before increasing spending in 2014 when spending will grow to 6.7% globally.
The tech market is being transformed by mobility, cloud computing, and smart computing, which are highly desired because of their transformative potential. Once the economic squeeze on IT budgets ends, the pent-up demand for new technologies will surface and drive the growth in tech spending. That will be the story of 2013 and 2014.
One product category that continues to stall is computer hardware. PC vendors had a lousy 2012, with zero growth in total, and server vendors did even worse, with a 4% decline. Weakness will persist in 2013, with purchases of both servers and storage declining and peripherals slowing to 3%. The 4% growth in PCs in 2013 looks more promising, but that is mostly due to growth in tablets, which Forrester counts in the broader PC category.
One hardware vendor continues to buck this trend: Apple. Forrester estimates that Apple will sell $7 billion of Macs and $11 billion of iPads to the corporate market in 2013, and $8 billion in Macs and $13 billion of iPads in 2014. Global corporate spending on Wintel PCs and tablets was down by 4% in 2012 and will be flat in 2013 as firms slowly replace their old Windows PCs with Windows 8 devices. Finally, in 2014, increased PC demand and improved Windows 8 devices will lead to a strong 8% increase of these products, but that growth will still be less than the double-digit growth for Linux, Android, and Apple products.
Gartner Identifies Top Vertical Industry Predictions for IT Organizations for 2013 and Beyond
Gartner, Inc. has revealed its top industry predictions for IT organizations and users for 2013 and beyond. Analysts said that social networking, mobile communications, the cloud and information are pressuring enterprises worldwide to make fundamental changes in business processes and that industry decision-makers should use Gartner's predictions to understand and respond to this Nexus of Forces.
CIOs and other IT and business leaders can use Gartner's predictions and recommendations to better understand the forces that are changing their world and develop strategies to address the requirements of a fast-changing business environment. The top industry predictions include:
By 2016, three automakers will have announced concrete plans for upcoming automobile launches that will offer autonomous vehicle technology.
By 2015, nontraditional money creation and exchange will enable 125 million more people to participate in the mainstream global economy.
By 2016, patients will be harmed or placed at risk by a medical device security breach.
By 2016, national governments will require institutions to surrender student records for a redesigned, cost-cutting curriculum based on big data analysis.
By 2015, natural-language processing (NLP) use among large healthcare delivery organizations (HDOs) in English-speaking countries will quintuple, fueled by documentation, coding, quality reporting and research.
By 2015, to avoid becoming simply transaction factories, successful payer organizations will turn to information integration as their competitive differentiator.
By 2016, half of U.S. utility customers will have access to standardized energy usage data, but only 20 percent will use it.
By year end 2014, pay-as-you-drive insurance will rise significantly to account for 10 percent of overall annual auto insurance premiums.
By 2017, more than 50 percent of the media sold to advertisers by agencies will be priced based on performance.
By 2014, less than 2 percent of consumers globally will adopt Near Field Communication (NFC)-based mobile payments.
More than 50 percent of government shared-service organizations that provide cloud services by 2015 will discontinue or downscale them by 2017.
By 2015, 50 percent of Tier 1 consumer goods manufacturers will invest in technology startups to maintain access to emerging business-to-consumer (B2C) technology.
Through 2014 enterprise software spend will increase by 25 percent from current figures as a consequence of the proliferation of smart operational technology (OT).
Executives Looking For Better Access To Mobile Device and Social Networking Data
A large number of companies have adopted a data analytics strategy to better leverage in-house information, but management teams don't seem to have the right access to marketplace data needed to make strategic decisions, says a new survey from KPMG LLP, the U.S. audit, tax and advisory firm.
More than 60 percent of respondents to a KPMG survey taken during Oracle OpenWorld, said their organization has a defined data and analytics strategy. However, only 39 percent of respondents either agreed or strongly agreed that senior management had access to the rising volume of data gathered from the marketplace necessary to predict the needs of their customers. This "unstructured" data is typically generated by customers, vendors and analysts over websites, by mobile device users, and via social networking.
As a result, senior management remains increasingly challenged to analyze current data and to act meaningfully on the results, according to 45 percent of more than 370 executives surveyed during the IT conference. In addition, more than one-quarter of respondents said their major challenge has been dealing with data raining in from other sources.
The old conventions for measuring, managing and monitoring a business—as well as assuring the quality of its data—will be stressed to new extremes as speed, the need for trustworthy information and machine learning continue to influence the marketplace.
Further, 29 percent of respondents said advances in data and analytics would fundamentally change their business or industry in the next five years. Forty-two percent of respondents said data and analytics would have an important impact in several areas of their industry or business, though more than one-third (36 percent) of those questioned said it will be at least one to three years before their company can implement a data and analytics strategy that allows predictive insights into the market.
Other findings included:
Forty-five percent of respondents either agreed or strongly
agreed that data analysis was on their board of directors' agenda.
Forty-five percent of those surveyed said their company tends of focus more on data security than on using data to improve core business operations.
Worldwide IT Spending Forecast to Reach $3.7 Trillion in 2013
Worldwide IT spending is projected to total $3.7 trillion in 2013, a 4.2 percent increase from 2012 spending of $3.6 trillion, according to the latest forecast by Gartner, Inc. The 2013 outlook for IT spending growth in U.S. dollars has been revised upward from 3.8 percent in the 3Q12 forecast.
Gartner analysts said much of this spending increase is the result from projected gains in the value of foreign currencies versus the dollar. When measured in constant dollars, 2013 spending growth is forecast to be 3.9 percent.
Worldwide devices spending which includes PCs, tablets, mobile phones and printers, is forecast to reach $666 billion in 2013, up 6.3 percent from 2012. However, this is a significant reduction in the outlook for 2013 compared with Gartner's previous forecast of $706 billion in worldwide devices and 7.9 percent growth. The long-term forecast for worldwide spending on devices has been reduced as well, with growth from 2012 through 2016 now expected to average 4.5 percent annually in current U.S. dollars (down from 6.4 percent) and 5.1 percent annually in constant dollars (down from 7.4 percent). These reductions reflect a sharp reduction in the forecast growth in spending on PCs and tablets that is only partially offset by marginal increases in forecast growth in spending on mobile phones and printers.
Worldwide enterprise software spending is forecast to total $296 billion in 2013, a 6.4 percent increase from 2012. This segment will be driven by key markets such as security, storage management and customer relationship management; however, beginning in 2014, markets aligned to big data and other information management initiatives, such as enterprise content management, data integration tools, and data quality tools will begin to see increased levels of investment.
The global telecom services market continues to be the largest IT spending market. Gartner analysts predict that growth will be predominately flat over the next several years as revenue from mobile data services compensates for the declines in total spending for both the fixed and mobile voice services markets. By 2016, Gartner forecasts that mobile data will represent 33 percent of the total telecom services market, up from 22 percent in 2012.
Six Best Practices for Moving to a Culture of Extreme Collaboration
CIOs and business managers will fail in their efforts to improve business performance outcomes through business process management (BPM) if they cannot overcome major barriers to cross-functional communication and collaboration, according to Gartner, Inc. Gartner said that business leaders can avoid this failure by embracing extreme collaboration (XC), a new operating model and an extreme style of collaboration. Gartner has identified six best practices for moving to a culture of XC:
Foster the Use of Virtual, Web-Based Collaboration Spaces in People's Daily Jobs
Gartner believes that one way to spur novel forms of collaboration is to select an activity currently handled through traditional methods, such face-to-face meetings or email, and encourage it to take place in a virtual, likely Web-based, collaboration space instead. These environments are easily accessed and almost always available. Virtual environments used to host such spaces can range from process collaboration environments to social networks or on-premises collaborative and social media tools.
Experimenting and gaining experience with such virtual collaboration is critical to XC, because an XC environment virtually operates in the same vicinity where the people do their daily jobs. The always on/always available characteristic of an XC environment means this type of extremely collaborative behavior can be dynamically incorporated into processes as an ad hoc activity.
Exploit the Value of Near-Real-Time Communication Addiction
The surge in real-time, or near-real-time, communication activities, such as texting, tweeting or updating Facebook, is not just a fad and businesses should embrace and encourage such behavior. Establishing real-time communication habits in the workplace enables a freer flow of information and more proactive notifications, so that people can respond more quickly to unexpected events and business disruptions. This can address the common problem of information being constrained and delayed through formal communication channels that run up and down the organizational hierarchy, or through defined email and need-to-know distribution lists. Real-time communication can break entrenched behaviors of relying on the management hierarchy to distribute information appropriately and, thereby, help overcome some of the communication-related problems associated with organizational politics.
Use Crowdsourcing and Popular Social Media Tools to Facilitate Dynamic Communities and Collaboration
One good way to kick-start the mind-set for extreme collaboration is to host a "tweet jam" to trigger a dynamic community to brainstorm on a problem. This involves simply setting a time and topic, and encouraging people to participate and get working. Unlike a conversation in a meeting room, all communication is captured so there's a clear record of what was discussed, who contributed ideas, and which participants excelled at facilitating discussions and problem-solving. Crowdsourcing is also proving to be very effective for bringing together people -- who often didn't previously know each other -- to tackle shared problems. Although not XC, per se; crowdsourcing is another style of collaboration.
Change Reward Systems to Encourage Collaboration
Today's dominant performance management methods are ineffective for process-centric organizations, because they discourage collaboration by rewarding individual efforts to deliver specific, one-time outcomes, rather than rewarding collaboration and team efforts. Enterprises that embrace XC reward influence collaborative behavior that contributes to resolving complex problems, in addition to rewarding individual deliverables. They design performance evaluations and incentives to foster teamwork and reward exceptional collaborators. The use of collaboration technologies also makes it easier to track collaborative behavior and tie it directly to outcomes achieved.
Use Social Network Analysis to Measure the Collaborative Behavior of Teams
Another way to measure and reward collaborative behavior is to track how people interact. Social network analysis (SNA) and some social media monitor people's social network influence. An XC culture is built on openness, trust and mutual respect and SNA is a technique to help process owners and business process improvement (BPI) leaders identify strong social networks where a foundation of trust and respect exist. Once such networks are identified, organizations should try to leverage these relationships by asking these groups of individuals to pool their collective strengths to address some critical, cross-boundary process performance challenge. Other social, mobile and cloud technologies will also provide new ways to track how and where people have collaborated and to measure what happened.
Plan Group Events to Kick-Start Real-Time Communication and Collaboration
A few simple steps can help force people out of their "comfort zones" to experiment with new ways of collaborating and interacting, including:
Designating mobile-video attendees at meetings.
Use game play to spur new forms of collaboration and creative interaction.
Consider turning off email for a defined time period.